منابع مشابه
G-7 Inflation Forecasts
This paper compares the forecasting performance of some leading models of inflation for the cross section of G-7 countries. We show that bivariate and trivariate models suggested by economic theory or statistical analysis are hardly better than univariate models. Phillips’ curve models fit well into this class. Significant improvements in both MSE of the forecasts and in turning point predictio...
متن کاملConservatism in Inflation Forecasts
Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which professional forecasters exhibit conservatism in their announced inflation forecasts. Conservatism occurs as a result of a secondary objective captured in the forecaster’s loss function: they would like to avoid having large forecast errors, but also would like to avoid making large revisions to previously announced forecasts. As a result of for...
متن کاملCan We Rely on Market-Based Inflation Forecasts?
A substantial decline in market-based measures of inflation expectations has raised concerns about low future inflation. An important question to address is whether these measures contain information that can improve upon alternative forecasting methods. This analysis finds that market-based inflation forecasts generally are no more accurate than surveys of professional forecasters or simple fo...
متن کاملUnderstanding survey based inflation expectations
Survey based measures of inflation expectations are not informationally efficient yet carry important information about future inflation. This paper explores the economic significance of informational inefficiencies of survey expectations. A model selection algorithm is applied to the inflation expectations of households and professionals using a large panel of macroeconomic data. The expectati...
متن کاملForecasts and Inflation Reports: An Evaluation
This paper argues that the most important aspect of central bank transparency is communication about the future path of the policy rate. Despite great progress on transparency, communication on this topic remains shrouded in an obscure code. Central banks can enhance transparency by providing, in decreasing order of importance: i) an unconditional forecast of the policy interest rate; ii) an un...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Forecasting
سال: 2011
ISSN: 0277-6693
DOI: 10.1002/for.1235